South Korean Exports Slump Expected Amid Trump's Tariffs, Says Reuters Poll

By Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Romero.my.id) - According to a Romero.my.id poll conducted on Tuesday, South Korea's exports likely declined in April due to the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's extensive tariffs, such as those imposed on automobiles and steel products.

South Korea is the initial key export-driven economy to release monthly trade statistics, offering an early glimpse into the condition of worldwide commerce.

Shipments from Asia's number four economic powerhouse are predicted to have dropped by 2.0% this month compared to the same period last year, following an increase of 3.0% the previous month. This projection is based on the average estimate provided by 22 analysts surveyed between April 23rd and April 28th.

This would mark the first instance of a year-over-year decrease over the past three months. In January, exports fell by 10.1%, a decline exacerbated by unfavorable calendar impacts due to the differing timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

On April 3rd, Trump introduced a 25% tariff on imported vehicles following his implementation of a 25% duty on steel imports starting March 4th. Additionally, he enforced a flat rate of 10% tariffs beginning April 5th. However, heightened "reciprocal" levies such as those at 25% against significant economies like South Korea have been temporarily halted for three months.

"Tariffs' effects are beginning to appear, not just in soft data, but also in hard data," stated Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities.

Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist with Hana Securities, similarly stated, "It appears that the negative impacts of tariffs might be beginning to manifest themselves now."

"And, additional downward pressure will come from impending tariffs on automobile components and semiconductor chips, along with the continuous trade dispute between the U.S. and China," Chun said additionally.

Nevertheless, the semiconductor industry, which represents South Korea's largest exported product, has shown resilience so far this month, potentially lending some support to overall economic indicators, according to economists.

During the initial 20 days of this month, exports decreased by 5.2%. Notably, automobile shipments declined by 6.5%, and steel product deliveries went down by 8.7%; however, semiconductor exports increased by 10.7%. In terms of destinations, goods sent to the U.S. saw a drop of 14.3%, compared with a decline of 3.4% for shipments going to China.

Due to tariffs, South Korean car manufacturers are becoming more pessimistic regarding the future of their industry. However, semiconductor companies remain hopeful because of strong demand, as reported by the nation’s central bank.

In the meantime, the survey suggests that imports are expected to have decreased by 7.0% in April, marking the largest decline since June 2024.

The middle ground among estimates placed the nation's trade balance at a surplus of $4.35 billion, which is smaller compared to the prior month’s $4.92 billion surplus.

On Thursday, May 1, South Korea plans to release their trade data for April at 9 a.m., which corresponds to 0000 GMT.

(Jihoon Lee reporting; Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Pranoy Krishna in Bengaluru; Edited by Sonali Paul)